FC Groningen
FC Twente
The model leans FC Twente at 40%. Expected goals: FC Groningen 1.22, FC Twente 1.55. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%. FC Groningen won 3 of their last 6; FC Twente won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Groningen | 29% | 3.48 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.64 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Twente | 44% | 2.28 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Twente. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.22 – 1.55| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.7%
- 0–27.6%
- 2–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Twente −0.5| FC Groningen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.