Fredericia
HB Køge
The model leans Fredericia at 50%. Expected goals: Fredericia 1.97, HB Køge 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%. Fredericia won 1 of their last 6; HB Køge won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fredericia | 54% | 1.84 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.21 | – | – | – |
| 2HB Køge | 22% | 4.57 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fredericia. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.97 – 1.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–08.2%
- 3–16.4%
- 1–25.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fredericia −0.5| Fredericia line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 23% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.