AaB
HB Køge
The model leans AaB at 39%. Expected goals: AaB 1.55, HB Køge 1.33. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. AaB won 2 of their last 6; HB Køge won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AaB | 41% | 2.41 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.70 | – | – | – |
| 2HB Køge | 32% | 3.17 | – | – | – |
Pick: AaB. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.55 – 1.33| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–17.5%
- 2–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AaB 0| AaB line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 21% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 25% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 18% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.