Aarhus Fremad
HB Køge
The model leans Aarhus Fremad at 50%. Expected goals: Aarhus Fremad 1.66, HB Køge 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%. Aarhus Fremad won 2 of their last 6; HB Køge won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aarhus Fremad | 53% | 1.90 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.74 | – | – | – |
| 2HB Køge | 21% | 4.84 | – | – | – |
Pick: Aarhus Fremad. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.66 – 0.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.1%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.3%
- 0–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 47% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Aarhus Fremad −0.5| Aarhus Fremad line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 25% | 46% |
| -0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| 0 | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.