Hobro
Aarhus Fremad
The model leans Aarhus Fremad at 37%. Expected goals: Hobro 1.25, Aarhus Fremad 1.40. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Hobro won 4 of their last 6; Aarhus Fremad won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hobro | 32% | 3.11 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.51 | – | – | – |
| 2Aarhus Fremad | 39% | 2.54 | – | – | – |
Pick: Aarhus Fremad. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.25 – 1.40| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.7%
- 0–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 41% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hobro 0| Hobro line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 19% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.