Esbjerg fB
Hobro
The model leans Esbjerg fB at 50%. Expected goals: Esbjerg fB 1.77, Hobro 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%. Esbjerg fB won 2 of their last 6; Hobro won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Esbjerg fB | 52% | 1.91 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.91 | – | – | – |
| 2Hobro | 22% | 4.54 | – | – | – |
Pick: Esbjerg fB. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.77 – 1.09| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–16.2%
- 1–26.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Esbjerg fB −0.5| Esbjerg fB line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 24% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 23% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.