Hillerød
Esbjerg fB
The model leans Hillerød at 36%. Expected goals: Hillerød 1.42, Esbjerg fB 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 58%. Hillerød won 1 of their last 6; Esbjerg fB won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hillerød | 37% | 2.67 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.60 | – | – | – |
| 2Esbjerg fB | 35% | 2.88 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hillerød. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.42 – 1.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–18.4%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hillerød 0| Hillerød line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.