Esbjerg fB
Vendsyssel FF
The model leans Esbjerg fB at 50%. Expected goals: Esbjerg fB 1.81, Vendsyssel FF 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%. Esbjerg fB won 2 of their last 6; Vendsyssel FF won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Esbjerg fB | 51% | 1.97 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.97 | – | – | – |
| 2Vendsyssel FF | 24% | 4.15 | – | – | – |
Pick: Esbjerg fB. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.81 – 1.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–26.4%
- 0–15.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Esbjerg fB −0.5| Esbjerg fB line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 23% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 15% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.