Predictions · 1. Division · outside model coverage

Esbjerg fB

02
Lost

Vendsyssel FF

The model leans Esbjerg fB at 50%. Expected goals: Esbjerg fB 1.81, Vendsyssel FF 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%. Esbjerg fB won 2 of their last 6; Vendsyssel FF won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Esbjerg fB51%1.97
XDraw25%3.97
2Vendsyssel FF24%4.15

Pick: Esbjerg fB. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.81 – 1.20
LineOverUnder
1.580%20%
2.558%42%
3.535%65%
Both teams to scoreYes58%No42%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.7%
  • 219.7%
  • 109.0%
  • 208.1%
  • 126.4%
  • 015.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Esbjerg fB −0.5
Esbjerg fB lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.529%71%
-129%23%48%
-0.552%48%
052%23%25%
+0.575%25%
+175%15%10%
+1.590%10%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.