Predictions · 1. Division · outside model coverage

Vendsyssel FF

12
Lost

Hobro

The model leans Vendsyssel FF at 41%. Expected goals: Vendsyssel FF 1.55, Hobro 1.18. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. Vendsyssel FF won 2 of their last 6; Hobro won 4 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Vendsyssel FF45%2.24
XDraw28%3.63
2Hobro28%3.61

Pick: Vendsyssel FF. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.55 – 1.18
LineOverUnder
1.576%24%
2.551%49%
3.529%71%
Both teams to scoreYes54%No46%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.9%
  • 1010.1%
  • 219.2%
  • 207.9%
  • 017.7%
  • 127.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 46% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Vendsyssel FF −0.5
Vendsyssel FF lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.523%77%
-123%23%54%
-0.546%54%
046%25%29%
+0.571%29%
+171%17%12%
+1.588%12%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.