Hillerød
Hobro
The model leans Hillerød at 42%. Expected goals: Hillerød 1.51, Hobro 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%. Hillerød won 1 of their last 6; Hobro won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hillerød | 46% | 2.18 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.55 | – | – | – |
| 2Hobro | 26% | 3.86 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hillerød. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.51 – 1.08| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–18.1%
- 0–07.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hillerød −0.5| Hillerød line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 23% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.