AaB
Hillerød
The model leans Hillerød at 36%. Expected goals: AaB 1.49, Hillerød 1.52. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 62%. AaB won 2 of their last 6; Hillerød won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AaB | 36% | 2.76 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.78 | – | – | – |
| 2Hillerød | 37% | 2.68 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hillerød. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.49 – 1.52| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.2%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–17.5%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AaB 0| AaB line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 20% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 24% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 20% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.