AaB
Fredericia
The model leans Fredericia at 41%. Expected goals: AaB 1.76, Fredericia 2.04. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 73%. AaB won 2 of their last 6; Fredericia won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AaB | 33% | 3.01 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.41 | – | – | – |
| 2Fredericia | 44% | 2.27 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fredericia. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.76 – 2.04| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 53% | 47% |
| Both teams to score | Yes72% | No28% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.2%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–17.1%
- 1–35.6%
- 2–34.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fredericia −0.5| AaB line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 17% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 21% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 19% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.