AaB
Kolding IF
The model leans AaB at 37%. Expected goals: AaB 1.40, Kolding IF 1.30. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. AaB won 2 of their last 6; Kolding IF won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AaB | 38% | 2.60 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.54 | – | – | – |
| 2Kolding IF | 33% | 3.00 | – | – | – |
Pick: AaB. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.40 – 1.30| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%
- 1–09.4%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 40% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AaB 0| AaB line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 21% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 26% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 19% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.