AB
Fredericia
The model leans AB at 43%. Expected goals: AB 2.20, Fredericia 1.80. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 75%. AB won 2 of their last 6; Fredericia won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AB | 47% | 2.14 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.59 | – | – | – |
| 2Fredericia | 31% | 3.18 | – | – | – |
Pick: AB. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.20 – 1.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 57% | 43% |
| Both teams to score | Yes74% | No26% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.0%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.5%
- 3–15.9%
- 3–25.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AB −0.5| AB line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 19% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 20% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 16% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.