Predictions · 1. Division · outside model coverage

Fredericia

11
Lost

Vendsyssel FF

The model leans Fredericia at 50%. Expected goals: Fredericia 2.07, Vendsyssel FF 1.40. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%. Fredericia won 1 of their last 6; Vendsyssel FF won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Fredericia52%1.92
XDraw23%4.35
2Vendsyssel FF25%4.01

Pick: Fredericia. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.07 – 1.40
LineOverUnder
1.586%14%
2.567%33%
3.546%54%
Both teams to scoreYes66%No34%

Most likely scores

  • 219.3%
  • 119.0%
  • 206.7%
  • 226.5%
  • 316.4%
  • 106.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Fredericia −0.5
Fredericia lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.531%69%
-131%22%47%
-0.553%47%
053%21%26%
+0.574%26%
+174%15%11%
+1.589%11%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.