Fredericia
Aarhus Fremad
The model leans Fredericia at 40%. Expected goals: Fredericia 1.80, Aarhus Fremad 1.55. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 67%. Fredericia won 1 of their last 6; Aarhus Fremad won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fredericia | 43% | 2.33 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.06 | – | – | – |
| 2Aarhus Fremad | 32% | 3.08 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fredericia. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.80 – 1.55| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.8%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.3%
- 2–05.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fredericia 0| Fredericia line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 20% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 23% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 18% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.