Hillerød
Aarhus Fremad
The model leans Hillerød at 32%. Expected goals: Hillerød 1.34, Aarhus Fremad 1.31. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Hillerød won 1 of their last 6; Aarhus Fremad won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hillerød | 36% | 2.75 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.49 | – | – | – |
| 2Aarhus Fremad | 35% | 2.85 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hillerød. Calibrated probability 32% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.34 – 1.31| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.1%
- 0–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 41% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hillerød 0| Hillerød line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 21% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.