Predictions · 1. Division · outside model coverage

HB Køge

02
Won

Vejle Boldklub

The model leans Vejle Boldklub at 37%. Expected goals: HB Køge 1.22, Vejle Boldklub 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. HB Køge won 0 of their last 6; Vejle Boldklub won 5 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1HB Køge33%3.07
XDraw29%3.44
2Vejle Boldklub38%2.61

Pick: Vejle Boldklub. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.22 – 1.34
LineOverUnder
1.572%28%
2.547%53%
3.526%74%
Both teams to scoreYes52%No48%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.6%
  • 0110.4%
  • 109.4%
  • 128.5%
  • 007.7%
  • 217.7%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: HB Køge 0
HB Køge lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.514%86%
-114%20%66%
-0.534%66%
034%27%40%
+0.560%40%
+160%21%18%
+1.582%18%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.