Predictions · 1. Division · outside model coverage

HB Køge

02
Won

Hvidovre

The model leans Hvidovre at 30%. Expected goals: HB Køge 1.26, Hvidovre 1.28. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. HB Køge won 0 of their last 6; Hvidovre won 4 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1HB Køge35%2.86
XDraw29%3.42
2Hvidovre36%2.80

Pick: Hvidovre. Calibrated probability 30% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.26 – 1.28
LineOverUnder
1.572%28%
2.547%53%
3.525%75%
Both teams to scoreYes52%No48%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.7%
  • 0110.1%
  • 109.9%
  • 128.1%
  • 218.0%
  • 007.9%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: HB Køge 0
HB Køge lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.516%84%
-116%20%64%
-0.536%64%
036%27%37%
+0.563%37%
+163%21%16%
+1.584%16%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.