Maxline Vitebsk
Naftan Novopolotsk
The model leans Maxline Vitebsk at 78%. Expected goals: Maxline Vitebsk 4.26, Naftan Novopolotsk 0.39. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 68%. Maxline Vitebsk won 4 of their last 6; Naftan Novopolotsk won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Maxline Vitebsk | 96% | 1.05 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 4% | 27.40 | – | – | – |
| 2Naftan Novopolotsk | 1% | 133.33 | – | – | – |
Pick: Maxline Vitebsk. Calibrated probability 78% (raw model output 96%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 99%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 4.26 – 0.39| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 67% | 33% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 4–013.6%
- 3–012.8%
- 5–011.6%
- 2–09.0%
- 6–08.2%
- 4–15.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Maxline Vitebsk −2| Maxline Vitebsk line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| -1 | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| -0.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
| 0 | 96% | 3% | 1% |
| +0.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
| +1 | 99% | 1% | 0% |
| +1.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.