Gomel
Naftan Novopolotsk
The model leans Gomel at 70%. Expected goals: Gomel 3.01, Naftan Novopolotsk 0.67. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 53%. Gomel won 2 of their last 6; Naftan Novopolotsk won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gomel | 83% | 1.20 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 12% | 8.44 | – | – | – |
| 2Naftan Novopolotsk | 5% | 20.45 | – | – | – |
Pick: Gomel. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 83%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.01 – 0.67| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 3–011.5%
- 2–011.4%
- 4–08.6%
- 3–17.7%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–07.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Gomel −2| Gomel line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| -1 | 65% | 18% | 16% |
| -0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| 0 | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| +0.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
| +1 | 95% | 4% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.