Naftan Novopolotsk
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
The model leans Arsenal Dzerzhinsk at 45%. Expected goals: Naftan Novopolotsk 0.94, Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1.46. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 52%. Naftan Novopolotsk won 1 of their last 6; Arsenal Dzerzhinsk won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Naftan Novopolotsk | 23% | 4.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.44 | – | – | – |
| 2Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 48% | 2.09 | – | – | – |
Pick: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.94 – 1.46| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.3%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–29.7%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk −0.5| Naftan Novopolotsk line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 16% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.