Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Slavia Mozyr
The model leans Draw at 29%. Expected goals: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0.98, Slavia Mozyr 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 59%. Arsenal Dzerzhinsk won 0 of their last 6; Slavia Mozyr won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 33% | 3.06 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.96 | – | – | – |
| 2Slavia Mozyr | 33% | 2.99 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 34%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 67%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.98 – 0.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 0–013.9%
- 0–113.8%
- 1–013.6%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–26.9%
- 1–26.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0| Arsenal Dzerzhinsk line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 21% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 31% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.