Predictions · Premier League · outside model coverage

Slavia Mozyr

30
Won

Dnyapro Mogilev

The model leans Slavia Mozyr at 51%. Expected goals: Slavia Mozyr 1.61, Dnyapro Mogilev 0.75. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 57%. Slavia Mozyr won 2 of their last 6; Dnyapro Mogilev won 0 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Slavia Mozyr57%1.76
XDraw27%3.70
2Dnyapro Mogilev16%6.22

Pick: Slavia Mozyr. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.61 – 0.75
LineOverUnder
1.568%32%
2.542%58%
3.521%79%
Both teams to scoreYes42%No58%

Most likely scores

  • 1015.2%
  • 2012.3%
  • 1111.4%
  • 009.4%
  • 219.2%
  • 017.1%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Slavia Mozyr −1
Slavia Mozyr lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.532%68%
-132%26%42%
-0.558%42%
058%25%17%
+0.583%17%
+183%12%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.