Dnyapro Mogilev
FC Minsk
The model leans FC Minsk at 43%. Expected goals: Dnyapro Mogilev 1.21, FC Minsk 1.66. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. Dnyapro Mogilev won 0 of their last 6; FC Minsk won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dnyapro Mogilev | 27% | 3.75 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.78 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Minsk | 47% | 2.14 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Minsk. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.21 – 1.66| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–19.4%
- 0–27.8%
- 2–16.9%
- 1–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Minsk −0.5| Dnyapro Mogilev line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 16% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.