Torpedo Zhodino
Dnyapro Mogilev
The model leans Torpedo Zhodino at 62%. Expected goals: Torpedo Zhodino 2.17, Dnyapro Mogilev 0.68. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%. Torpedo Zhodino won 1 of their last 6; Dnyapro Mogilev won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Torpedo Zhodino | 71% | 1.41 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.07 | – | – | – |
| 2Dnyapro Mogilev | 9% | 10.64 | – | – | – |
Pick: Torpedo Zhodino. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 71%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.17 – 0.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 2–013.6%
- 1–012.6%
- 3–09.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.5%
- 3–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Torpedo Zhodino −1.5| Torpedo Zhodino line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| -1 | 47% | 24% | 28% |
| -0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| 0 | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 8% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.