Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Torpedo Zhodino
The model leans Torpedo Zhodino at 42%. Expected goals: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0.89, Torpedo Zhodino 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 55%. Arsenal Dzerzhinsk won 0 of their last 6; Torpedo Zhodino won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 24% | 4.24 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.27 | – | – | – |
| 2Torpedo Zhodino | 46% | 2.18 | – | – | – |
Pick: Torpedo Zhodino. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.89 – 1.34| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.4%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.8%
- 0–29.7%
- 1–09.6%
- 1–28.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Torpedo Zhodino −0.5| Arsenal Dzerzhinsk line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 17% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.