Belshina Bobruisk
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
The model leans Arsenal Dzerzhinsk at 29%. Expected goals: Belshina Bobruisk 1.19, Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1.21. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%. Belshina Bobruisk won 1 of their last 6; Arsenal Dzerzhinsk won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Belshina Bobruisk | 34% | 2.91 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.30 | – | – | – |
| 2Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 35% | 2.83 | – | – | – |
Pick: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.19 – 1.21| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–17.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Belshina Bobruisk 0| Belshina Bobruisk line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 21% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 28% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.