Predictions · Premier League · outside model coverage

ML Vitebsk

11
Lost

Belshina Bobruisk

The model leans ML Vitebsk at 75%. Expected goals: ML Vitebsk 3.54, Belshina Bobruisk 0.49. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 62%. ML Vitebsk won 4 of their last 6; Belshina Bobruisk won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1ML Vitebsk91%1.10
XDraw7%14.03
2Belshina Bobruisk2%50.00

Pick: ML Vitebsk. Calibrated probability 75% (raw model output 91%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 98%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 3.54 – 0.49
LineOverUnder
1.591%9%
2.576%24%
3.557%43%
Both teams to scoreYes38%No62%

Most likely scores

  • 3013.3%
  • 4011.8%
  • 2011.3%
  • 508.3%
  • 316.5%
  • 106.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 63% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: ML Vitebsk −2
ML Vitebsk lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.577%23%
-177%14%9%
-0.591%9%
091%7%2%
+0.598%2%
+198%2%0%
+1.5100%0%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.