ML Vitebsk
Belshina Bobruisk
The model leans ML Vitebsk at 75%. Expected goals: ML Vitebsk 3.54, Belshina Bobruisk 0.49. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 62%. ML Vitebsk won 4 of their last 6; Belshina Bobruisk won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1ML Vitebsk | 91% | 1.10 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 7% | 14.03 | – | – | – |
| 2Belshina Bobruisk | 2% | 50.00 | – | – | – |
Pick: ML Vitebsk. Calibrated probability 75% (raw model output 91%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 98%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.54 – 0.49| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 57% | 43% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 3–013.3%
- 4–011.8%
- 2–011.3%
- 5–08.3%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 63% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: ML Vitebsk −2| ML Vitebsk line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| -1 | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| -0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| 0 | 91% | 7% | 2% |
| +0.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
| +1 | 98% | 2% | 0% |
| +1.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.