ML Vitebsk
Baranovichi
The model leans ML Vitebsk at 76%. Expected goals: ML Vitebsk 4.07, Baranovichi 0.59. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 56%. ML Vitebsk won 4 of their last 6; Baranovichi won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1ML Vitebsk | 93% | 1.08 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 5% | 18.28 | – | – | – |
| 2Baranovichi | 2% | 57.80 | – | – | – |
Pick: ML Vitebsk. Calibrated probability 76% (raw model output 93%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 98%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 4.07 – 0.59| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 68% | 32% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 4–011.1%
- 3–010.9%
- 5–09.0%
- 2–08.1%
- 4–16.5%
- 3–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: ML Vitebsk −2| ML Vitebsk line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| -1 | 82% | 11% | 7% |
| -0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| 0 | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| +0.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
| +1 | 98% | 2% | 0% |
| +1.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.