Baranovichi
Dynamo Brest
The model leans Dynamo Brest at 51%. Expected goals: Baranovichi 1.01, Dynamo Brest 1.83. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%. Baranovichi won 2 of their last 6; Dynamo Brest won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Baranovichi | 20% | 5.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.01 | – | – | – |
| 2Dynamo Brest | 56% | 1.80 | – | – | – |
Pick: Dynamo Brest. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.01 – 1.83| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.8%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.8%
- 1–36.0%
- 0–36.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Dynamo Brest −1| Baranovichi line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 13% | 79% |
| -0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| 0 | 21% | 23% | 57% |
| +0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| +1 | 43% | 24% | 32% |
| +1.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.