Predictions · Premier League · outside model coverage

Baranovichi

11
Lost

Dynamo Brest

The model leans Dynamo Brest at 51%. Expected goals: Baranovichi 1.01, Dynamo Brest 1.83. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%. Baranovichi won 2 of their last 6; Dynamo Brest won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Baranovichi20%5.12
XDraw25%4.01
2Dynamo Brest56%1.80

Pick: Dynamo Brest. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 80%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.01 – 1.83
LineOverUnder
1.578%22%
2.554%46%
3.532%68%
Both teams to scoreYes53%No47%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.8%
  • 0110.7%
  • 129.9%
  • 029.8%
  • 136.0%
  • 036.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Dynamo Brest −1
Baranovichi lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.57%93%
-17%13%79%
-0.521%79%
021%23%57%
+0.543%57%
+143%24%32%
+1.568%32%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.