Baranovichi
Isloch
The model leans Isloch at 51%. Expected goals: Baranovichi 0.95, Isloch 1.91. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%. Baranovichi won 2 of their last 6; Isloch won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Baranovichi | 17% | 5.77 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.16 | – | – | – |
| 2Isloch | 59% | 1.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: Isloch. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.95 – 1.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 0–110.9%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.6%
- 1–36.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Isloch −1| Baranovichi line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 12% | 82% |
| -0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| 0 | 18% | 22% | 60% |
| +0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| +1 | 40% | 24% | 35% |
| +1.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.