Dnyapro Mogilev
Isloch
The model leans Isloch at 50%. Expected goals: Dnyapro Mogilev 0.68, Isloch 1.31. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 63%. Dnyapro Mogilev won 0 of their last 6; Isloch won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dnyapro Mogilev | 18% | 5.56 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.20 | – | – | – |
| 2Isloch | 51% | 1.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: Isloch. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.68 – 1.31| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 0–118.0%
- 0–013.7%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–211.8%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Isloch −0.5| Dnyapro Mogilev line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 14% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 29% | 52% |
| +0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| +1 | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.