ML Vitebsk
BATE Borisov
The model leans ML Vitebsk at 68%. Expected goals: ML Vitebsk 2.10, BATE Borisov 0.40. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 71%. ML Vitebsk won 4 of their last 6; BATE Borisov won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1ML Vitebsk | 77% | 1.30 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.55 | – | – | – |
| 2BATE Borisov | 5% | 19.65 | – | – | – |
Pick: ML Vitebsk. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.10 – 0.40| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes29% | No71% |
Most likely scores
- 2–018.2%
- 1–017.3%
- 3–012.7%
- 0–08.2%
- 2–17.2%
- 1–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: ML Vitebsk −1.5| ML Vitebsk line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| -1 | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| -0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| 0 | 78% | 17% | 6% |
| +0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| +1 | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.