BATE Borisov
Gomel
The model leans Gomel at 37%. Expected goals: BATE Borisov 0.91, Gomel 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 58%. BATE Borisov won 2 of their last 6; Gomel won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BATE Borisov | 28% | 3.62 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.04 | – | – | – |
| 2Gomel | 40% | 2.53 | – | – | – |
Pick: Gomel. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.91 – 1.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.8%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–013.0%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–28.4%
- 1–27.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: BATE Borisov 0| BATE Borisov line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 19% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 30% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.