Gomel
Neman Grodno
The model leans Gomel at 40%. Expected goals: Gomel 1.27, Neman Grodno 0.89. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 56%. Gomel won 2 of their last 6; Neman Grodno won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gomel | 44% | 2.28 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.19 | – | – | – |
| 2Neman Grodno | 25% | 4.03 | – | – | – |
Pick: Gomel. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.27 – 0.89| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.6%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–011.5%
- 0–110.2%
- 2–09.3%
- 2–18.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Gomel −0.5| Gomel line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 25% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.