FK Vitebsk
Neman Grodno
The model leans Neman Grodno at 41%. Expected goals: FK Vitebsk 0.71, Neman Grodno 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 64%. FK Vitebsk won 5 of their last 6; Neman Grodno won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FK Vitebsk | 22% | 4.63 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.94 | – | – | – |
| 2Neman Grodno | 44% | 2.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: Neman Grodno. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.71 – 1.13| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 0–118.0%
- 0–016.0%
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–27.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Neman Grodno −0.5| FK Vitebsk line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 16% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 31% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 26% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.