FK Vitebsk
Naftan Novopolotsk
The model leans FK Vitebsk at 51%. Expected goals: FK Vitebsk 1.67, Naftan Novopolotsk 0.85. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%. FK Vitebsk won 5 of their last 6; Naftan Novopolotsk won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FK Vitebsk | 56% | 1.80 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.77 | – | – | – |
| 2Naftan Novopolotsk | 18% | 5.60 | – | – | – |
Pick: FK Vitebsk. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.67 – 0.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.4%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–011.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.0%
- 0–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FK Vitebsk −1| FK Vitebsk line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.