FC Minsk
FK Vitebsk
The model leans FC Minsk at 60%. Expected goals: FC Minsk 2.09, FK Vitebsk 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 50%. FC Minsk won 3 of their last 6; FK Vitebsk won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Minsk | 66% | 1.51 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.66 | – | – | – |
| 2FK Vitebsk | 12% | 8.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Minsk. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.09 – 0.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.0%
- 1–011.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.3%
- 3–08.4%
- 3–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Minsk −1| FC Minsk line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| -1 | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| -0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| 0 | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.