Predictions · Premier League · outside model coverage

BATE Borisov

21
Lost

FC Minsk

The model leans FC Minsk at 36%. Expected goals: BATE Borisov 1.16, FC Minsk 1.25. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%. BATE Borisov won 2 of their last 6; FC Minsk won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1BATE Borisov33%3.07
XDraw30%3.31
2FC Minsk37%2.68

Pick: FC Minsk. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.16 – 1.25
LineOverUnder
1.569%31%
2.543%57%
3.522%78%
Both teams to scoreYes49%No51%

Most likely scores

  • 1113.0%
  • 0111.3%
  • 1010.4%
  • 009.0%
  • 128.2%
  • 217.5%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: BATE Borisov 0
BATE Borisov lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.514%86%
-114%20%66%
-0.534%66%
034%28%39%
+0.561%39%
+161%22%17%
+1.583%17%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.