Neman Grodno
FC Minsk
The model leans Neman Grodno at 42%. Expected goals: Neman Grodno 1.49, FC Minsk 1.07. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%. Neman Grodno won 3 of their last 6; FC Minsk won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Neman Grodno | 46% | 2.19 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.52 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Minsk | 26% | 3.85 | – | – | – |
Pick: Neman Grodno. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.49 – 1.07| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%
- 1–011.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–18.3%
- 0–07.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Neman Grodno −0.5| Neman Grodno line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 23% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.