Naftan Novopolotsk
Neman Grodno
The model leans Neman Grodno at 54%. Expected goals: Naftan Novopolotsk 0.75, Neman Grodno 1.80. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%. Naftan Novopolotsk won 1 of their last 6; Neman Grodno won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Naftan Novopolotsk | 14% | 7.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.06 | – | – | – |
| 2Neman Grodno | 61% | 1.63 | – | – | – |
Pick: Neman Grodno. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.75 – 1.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.1%
- 0–212.7%
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–07.8%
- 0–37.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Neman Grodno −1| Naftan Novopolotsk line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 11% | 85% |
| -0.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| 0 | 15% | 23% | 62% |
| +0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| +1 | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| +1.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.