Neman Grodno
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
The model leans Neman Grodno at 50%. Expected goals: Neman Grodno 1.24, Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0.62. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 66%. Neman Grodno won 3 of their last 6; Arsenal Dzerzhinsk won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Neman Grodno | 50% | 1.98 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.09 | – | – | – |
| 2Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 17% | 5.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: Neman Grodno. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.24 – 0.62| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 1–019.4%
- 0–015.6%
- 2–012.1%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Neman Grodno −0.5| Neman Grodno line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 28% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 30% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 14% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.