Dinamo Minsk
Naftan Novopolotsk
The model leans Dinamo Minsk at 76%. Expected goals: Dinamo Minsk 3.74, Naftan Novopolotsk 0.52. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 60%. Dinamo Minsk won 3 of their last 6; Naftan Novopolotsk won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dinamo Minsk | 92% | 1.09 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 6% | 15.58 | – | – | – |
| 2Naftan Novopolotsk | 2% | 53.19 | – | – | – |
Pick: Dinamo Minsk. Calibrated probability 76% (raw model output 92%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 98%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.74 – 0.52| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 61% | 39% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 3–012.5%
- 4–011.6%
- 2–010.0%
- 5–08.7%
- 3–16.5%
- 4–16.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Dinamo Minsk −2| Dinamo Minsk line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| -1 | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| -0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| 0 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +0.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
| +1 | 98% | 2% | 0% |
| +1.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.