Predictions · Premier League · outside model coverage

Dinamo Minsk

11
Lost

FK Vitebsk

The model leans Dinamo Minsk at 68%. Expected goals: Dinamo Minsk 2.35, FK Vitebsk 0.49. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 64%. Dinamo Minsk won 3 of their last 6; FK Vitebsk won 5 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Dinamo Minsk78%1.28
XDraw16%6.18
2FK Vitebsk5%18.42

Pick: Dinamo Minsk. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 78%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.35 – 0.49
LineOverUnder
1.578%22%
2.554%46%
3.532%68%
Both teams to scoreYes35%No65%

Most likely scores

  • 2016.1%
  • 1013.7%
  • 3012.6%
  • 217.9%
  • 407.4%
  • 116.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Dinamo Minsk −1.5
Dinamo Minsk lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.556%44%
-156%23%21%
-0.579%21%
079%15%6%
+0.594%6%
+194%5%1%
+1.599%1%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.