BATE Borisov
FK Vitebsk
The model leans BATE Borisov at 43%. Expected goals: BATE Borisov 1.14, FK Vitebsk 0.63. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 67%. BATE Borisov won 2 of their last 6; FK Vitebsk won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BATE Borisov | 47% | 2.13 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.94 | – | – | – |
| 2FK Vitebsk | 19% | 5.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: BATE Borisov. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.14 – 0.63| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 74% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes32% | No68% |
Most likely scores
- 1–019.4%
- 0–017.0%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–011.1%
- 0–110.7%
- 2–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: BATE Borisov −0.5| BATE Borisov line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 27% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 32% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 15% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.