Gomel
FK Vitebsk
The model leans Gomel at 60%. Expected goals: Gomel 1.89, FK Vitebsk 0.63. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 59%. Gomel won 2 of their last 6; FK Vitebsk won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gomel | 67% | 1.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.39 | – | – | – |
| 2FK Vitebsk | 11% | 9.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Gomel. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.89 – 0.63| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.1%
- 2–014.3%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 3–09.0%
- 0–08.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Gomel −1| Gomel line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| -0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| 0 | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 9% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.