Forward Madison FC
Union Omaha
The model leans Union Omaha at 41%. Expected goals: Forward Madison FC 1.14, Union Omaha 1.53. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%. Forward Madison FC won 2 of their last 6; Union Omaha won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Forward Madison FC | 27% | 3.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.59 | – | – | – |
| 2Union Omaha | 45% | 2.22 | – | – | – |
Pick: Union Omaha. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.14 – 1.53| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–28.1%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 25% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Union Omaha −0.5| Forward Madison FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 17% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 25% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.