Forward Madison FC
Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
The model leans Chattanooga Red Wolves SC at 33%. Expected goals: Forward Madison FC 1.34, Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Forward Madison FC | 35% | 2.84 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.54 | – | – | – |
| 2Chattanooga Red Wolves SC | 37% | 2.74 | – | – | – |
Pick: Chattanooga Red Wolves SC. Calibrated probability 33% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.34 – 1.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.2%
- 0–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 40% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Forward Madison FC 0| Forward Madison FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 20% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 20% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.