Predictions · USL League One · outside model coverage

Forward Madison FC

52
Lost

Chattanooga Red Wolves SC

The model leans Chattanooga Red Wolves SC at 33%. Expected goals: Forward Madison FC 1.34, Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Forward Madison FC35%2.84
XDraw28%3.54
2Chattanooga Red Wolves SC37%2.74

Pick: Chattanooga Red Wolves SC. Calibrated probability 33% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.34 – 1.36
LineOverUnder
1.575%25%
2.551%49%
3.529%71%
Both teams to scoreYes55%No45%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.3%
  • 019.2%
  • 109.0%
  • 128.4%
  • 218.2%
  • 006.7%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 40% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Forward Madison FC 0
Forward Madison FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.516%84%
-116%20%64%
-0.536%64%
036%26%38%
+0.562%38%
+162%20%17%
+1.583%17%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.