Predictions · USL Cup Grp. 3 · outside model coverage
San Antonio FC
2–0
Won
Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
The model leans San Antonio FC at 60%. Expected goals: San Antonio FC 2.09, Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 0.75. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match68
21
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1San Antonio FC | 68% | 1.48 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.75 | – | – | – |
| 2Chattanooga Red Wolves SC | 11% | 8.87 | – | – | – |
Pick: San Antonio FC. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.09 – 0.75| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.8%
- 1–012.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.1%
- 3–08.9%
- 3–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: San Antonio FC −1.5| San Antonio FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| -0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| 0 | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 9% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.